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Shanghai Nickel's main 2406 contract opened strongly higher on FridayspaceinvadersgameThe rising expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has helped nickel prices rise, but supply constraints and uncertain market demand are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

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[The price of the main Shanghai nickel contract rose strongly, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and changes in the macro environment becoming the main support.] Last Friday, the main Shanghai nickel contract 2406 opened higher and went higher, continuing the strong upward trend the night before. The opening price was 151,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,180 yuan from the previous trading day, or an increase of 3%spaceinvadersgame.5% or more. The rapid rise in prices this time is mainly due to positive changes in the macro environment, especially the rising expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which provides strong support for the upward trend of nickel prices. As U.S. core inflation fell to a three-year low, the U.S. dollar also fell to a multi-month low, boosting market expectations for future Fed interest rate cuts. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts not only boosted nickel prices, but also had a positive impact on the entire base metals market. Investors are increasingly concerned about supply disruptions, and the continued growth in demand for base metals in the green energy sector has also jointly driven the rise in nickel prices. Although the disturbance in overseas nickel supply has decreased, the shipment volume of nickel mines in the Philippines has remained stable, and nickel ore prices have remained firm, Indonesia's progress in nickel ore approvals is still unclear, resulting in the need to wait for the release of ore mines. Since March, the tight supply of nickel ore has gradually affected the supply of smelting, adding uncertainty to fluctuations in nickel prices. In the domestic market, refined nickel production fell by 1% month-on-month in April, but the market expects signs of resuming production cuts in May. Currently, nickel inventories are still at a relatively high level, providing a certain buffer for the market. However, from the perspective of downstream demand, the overall consumption situation is not optimistic. The market is paying close attention to the impact of equipment upgrades on end consumption to assess future trends in nickel demand. Looking ahead to the market outlook, although U.S. consumer inflation has returned to the downward channel, boosting expectations for interest rate cuts in September, it is expected that macro positive sentiment will gradually heat up. However, considering the weak fundamentals, nickel prices lack significant upward momentum. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the current situation of long and short positions, investors should remain cautious when operating. It is recommended to focus on taking profit from multiple nickel orders in the short term, and pay attention to nickel stainless steel arbitrage strategies. It is expected that the operating range of the main nickel contract will be between 148,500 and 152,500 yuan/ton. Investors should keep a close eye on market dynamics and combine fundamental and technical analysis to formulate reasonable investment strategies.