The near futureLkf777slotThe sharp rise and fall of gold affected the nerves of the market. From the rising trend to the ups and downs, the price of gold has experienced a roller coaster.
Since March, the price of gold has risen like a rainbow, and since late April, the "hot" market of gold has taken a sharp turn for the worse, entering a sustained pullback. On May 15, the price of gold closed up slightly, in a state of weak consolidation.
The industry believes that the Fed will gradually enter the interest rate cut cycle in the future, central banks around the world continue to buy money, geopolitical risks are still continuing, and gold prices still have rising potential in the medium to long term.
Photo Source: Mandarin Finance and Economics
The news side may provide support for gold.
From a continuous rise to a continuous pullback, what is the next step for the popular gold?
Bo Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, said that the global economic uncertainty has increased, the market's pursuit of safe-haven assets has weakened, and the exchange rate of the US dollar has strengthened. The price of gold will be affected by the increase in gold supply and the weakening consumer demand for gold jewelry. In the short term, the trend of gold prices may be affected by market risk factors, such as global economic conditions, interest rates and monetary policy.
China's gold reserves rose from 72.8 million ounces at the end of April to 72.74 million ounces at the end of March, an increase of 60, 000 ounces month-on-month, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
Gold and silver futures say emerging market central banks, represented by China, have been buying gold in recent years to cope with the risk of a decline in dollar credit. Since November of the year before last, China's gold reserves have increased for the 18th consecutive month, with a total increase of 10.16 million ounces. In the medium to long term, the purchase of gold by emerging market central banks supports the price of gold.
Recently, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, 23 percent of Americans applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of May 4.Lkf777slot.10, 000, the highest since the week of August 26, 2023, and the third-largest weekly increase since 2021, exceeding expectations by 212000. Continued jobless claims also remained high, with the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits rising to 1.79 million on April 27th, the biggest increase in a month. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States has risen, indicating that the US job market has cooled.
Because the Fed has previously said that if there is a recession in the job market, it will cut interest rates. Therefore, the cooling of the US job market will help to increase market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut. " Gold and silver futures forecast, judging from the performance of the interest rate futures market, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December this year, a total of two interest rate cuts this year. Overall, market expectations of interest rate cuts are stronger than before. The recent cooling of the US job market and the strengthening of market interest rate cuts are expected to provide support for gold.
Industry: be cautious and act according to your ability
Overall, the market consensus is that gold has done well this year, with returns of about 13 per cent so far, outpacing the S & P 500. But does gold really deserve a place in your portfolio?
Industry insiders say that despite the recent decline in gold prices, the case for holding gold still looks strong: inflation is still higher than policymakers expected, and gold is seen as a hedge against inflation; geopolitical tensions have intensified with the outbreak of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East.
Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, reminded investors that gold should be used as part of asset allocation to reduce the risk of the overall investment portfolio, and the specific proportion can be determined according to individual risk preferences and investment objectives; at the same time, be careful to chase high and buy bargain-hunting to avoid blindly following the trend. Pay close attention to the impact of factors such as the global economic situation, inflationary pressures, interest rate changes and geopolitics on gold prices. These data and information help investors make more informed decisions.
For ordinary investors, whether gold is worth "rushing", industry insiders added that it depends on individual investment goals and risk tolerance. If you think gold is an important safe haven and want to add some gold to your portfolio to reduce risk, now may be a good time. However, it should be noted that the price of gold still faces some uncertainty, and investors need to consider their investment decisions carefully.
