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OPEC+ production cuts are expected to boost a small rebound in oil pricesPokergamepokergameLack of upward support in the coal market, tight supply of natural gas pushed up prices, and short-and medium-term energy prices were bullish.

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[energy market trends: oil and gas prices rise, coal market volatility intensifies]

Crude oil prices have risen slightly in the past week, driven by expectations of continued OPEC+ production cuts and optimism about peak season demand. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have not eased significantly, with refined oil cracking spreads rebounding after hitting lows, and price performance has been boosted by expectations of summer demand.

At the same time, the coal market shows a volatile trend, the operation of domestic coal prices is unstable, and the market trading volume is relatively limited. In contrast, Indonesian coal prices remained stable, while Australian Gaoca coal prices rose slightly.

In the natural gas market, US natural gas prices have risen significantly due to tight supply and hot summer weather.

For the short-and medium-term energy market trend, there is a fundamental support, energy commodity prices show a trend that is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

In terms of unit calorific value, the price of crude oil is higher than that of European natural gas, while the domestic price of coal is lower than that of European coal and American natural gas.

In terms of oil prices, geopolitical issues need to continue to be paid attention to due to the reduced possibility of escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and Russia's new military actions in the Kharkiv region. At the same time, US crude oil production did not increase, while Russian oil production and exports fell in April. Iraq and Kazakhstan have developed compensation plans for early overproduction, which provides some support for the supply side. It is widely expected that the OPEC+ production reduction policy will continue into the second half of the year, although recently Iraqi and UAE officials expressed opposition to the continuation of the production reduction, OPEC+ 's production policy has become the focus of the market in the second half of the year. With the end of the global refinery maintenance season and the arrival of the summer travel season, overseas demand has become the focus of attention in the later stage, and oil prices are still supported by the peak season after the geopolitical premium recedes.

The short-term price stalemate in the coal market, traders are optimistic about the peak season, but the transfer of inventory to downstream ports and power plants, superimposed pit mouth resumption expectations and rapid recovery of hydropower, these factors advance the summer replenishment demand. Therefore, the coal market lacks the contradiction to promote the price rise, the short-and medium-term prices are expected to run mainly by shocks, and the sustained rebound in prices requires more terminal demand. Overseas Indonesian coal prices remain stable and strong.

In the natural gas market, the fundamentals are strong to form the bottom support, but there is a lack of new positive factors, and the rising space is limited. Pipeline gas flow in Norway has risen sharply, while LNG imports are still low. Temperatures in northwestern Europe rose seasonally, demand seasonally fell back to the bottom, and fluctuations mainly came from the electricity sector. European gas prices may fluctuate in the range of 29-31 euros per megawatt-hour. The Kinder Morgan of the United States has been extended to the end of August, resulting in a gap in output out of production. At the same time, Canadian wildfires and hurricanes in the United States occur frequently in the current season, and the risk of supply reduction caused by installation accidents is higher. Cameron expects to end maintenance and resume next week, and there is still room for upside exports, but after the improvement in extreme weather month-on-month, electricity consumption is under pressure and demand is intertwined. Natural gas prices in the United States are easy to rise and difficult to fall, but the demand side interest is insufficient, and the upside space should not be overestimated.