In terms of inflation, overnight U.S. multi-caliber CPI data was released. In April, the unseasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate and the unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate both exceeded expectations and fell downward, in line with market expectations, recording 3.5 per cent respectively.freenudepoker.6%、3freenudepoker.4%。In April, the core CPI monthly rate and CPI monthly rate also exceeded expectations, with a downward trend of 0.1%, both recording 0.3%. Among them, the monthly CPI rate has declined for the first time in seven months, and has now fallen back to the low level since December 2023 (see Figure 1). CPIfreenudepokerThe beleager-than-expected downward trend has caused the market to increase its bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September (see Figure 2), and funding sentiment may improve.
In terms of economic data, the "terror data" fell beyond expectations. The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in April recorded 0%, much lower than the previous value of 0.70%(see Figure 3). The U.S. New York Fed's manufacturing index also fell sharply in May, recording-15.6, lower than expected (-10)(see Figure 4). The weakening of the U.S. economy may add new evidence.
On the whole, the unexpected correction in CPI data has increased the market's confidence in falling inflation, improved expectations of interest rate cuts, or helped gold prices rise again, paying attention to the impact of changes in geographical risks on safe-haven demand.
Fig. 1freenudepoker: U.S. adjusted monthly CPI rate in April
Photo source: Jin Shi Data
Figure 2: Prediction of the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and interest rates
Photo source: Yingwei Financial Situation
Figure 3:"Terror Data"
Photo source: Jin Shi Data
Figure 4: New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Data
Photo source: Jin Shi Data
Source: Wind, Jinshi Data, Yingwei Financial Information, Everbright Futures Research Institute
Written by: Shi Yueming
Qualification: F03097365
Investment consulting qualification: Z0017563
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